It's Official: The Us Entered a Recession in February

The New York Times Reports: The U.S. Entered a Recession in February

The US has ended the longest expansion in history, as the US officially entered a recession in February 2020. The economy reached its peak in February and then fell dramatically.

This downturn is the first since 2009, when the last recession ended, and marks the end of the longest expansion — 128 months — in records dating back to 1854. Most economists expect this recession to be both particularly deep and exceptionally short, perhaps just a few months, as states reopen and economic activity resumes.

The National Bureau of Economic Research, which is a nonprofit that tracks economic cycles in the US, emphasized the atypical circumstances.

“The committee recognizes that the pandemic and the public health response have resulted in a downturn with different characteristics and dynamics than prior recessions,” the group said. “Nonetheless, it concluded that the unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warrants the designation of this episode as a recession, even if it turns out to be briefer than earlier contractions.”

Some economists argue that the US may have made its way out of the recession already or is close to.

Real-time economic gauges, like a series on Chase credit card spending produced by J.P. Morgan, show that spending pulled back sharply in early March and has gradually rebounded since late April. Even so, spending remains well below pre-crisis levels.

With regard to the global economy, the world will experience its greatest recession since WWII, according to the World Bank.

Global output will shrink by 5.2 percent, the institution said, warning that while growth is likely to rebound in 2021, a more protracted pandemic that leads to a breakdown in financial markets and global trade could darken the outlook.